The COVID outbreak is not a national. It is lots of local outbreaks. Every county has its own story to tell. Now you can see how your county is doing.
“The problem with looking at the COVID-19 pandemic on a national level is that it isn’t a national outbreak. It’s lots of little outbreaks all over the country. They all started on different times and are growing at different rates.” So says data mining expert Brian Woodruff, who claims he has a better way of looking at things.
“You need to look on a per county basis. Each county has its own story to tell.”, says Brian.
There are 3,142 counties in the US. 2,470 of them have the virus.
Brian is tracking each of these outbreaks on his website at
Each county has a graph showing the historical data of confirmed cases. It also shows the population of that county. “The trend line for the outbreak provides a good indicator of future growth, at least in the short term.”, explains Brian. His graph shows where this trend line is going and makes predictions about when it will reach 1% or even 10% of the population.
“There is a lot of concern about how accurate these numbers of confirmed cases are”, Brian laments, “but what I can do is take the numbers we have and show where they are going.”
“The only hard limit in any county is the population of the county itself. Obviously, it can not go over 100%. At some point, in each county, the curve will bend over or flatten. This is everybody’s first rodeo, so no one is sure when or where that will happen on the graph. There are too many variables.”
One thing his data reveals for nearly all counties is that the social distancing appears to be working. In nearly all cases, the curve climbs at one rate, then bends to a lower rate in late March.
“It seems to me”, says Brian, “that the slower growth also means the virus just won’t reach some people. So that means it will level off at a lower percent of the population. At this point, that’s a hope. These graphs will tell the story, though.”
“One thing seems clear. If we go back to our old way of living, the grown rate will go back up, too.”
Brian is hopeful that his data and insights will help.
Source: EIN Presswire